Popular opinion, as we know, can vary with changes in time, place, and domestic and external circumstances. It can also be manipulated by politicians.

　　Years ago, the Taiwanese government had a drawn-out debate on whether the president should be elected by the National Assembly or directly elected by the voters. In the end, former president Lee Teng-hui succeeded overnight in turning public opinion in his favour. This led to a joke that Taiwan’s public opinion is “as unpredictable as flowing water”. It also caused much political damage to politicians like Ma Ying-jeou who is now the mayor of Taipei.

　　In fact, the way public opinion changes in Taiwan is no more dramatic than that in other countries. To begin with, every society desires a peaceful and constructive political, economic and social environment where people can survive and thrive.

　　This goal, however, looks increasingly distant and unachievable in today’s Taiwan.

　　Politically, the mainstream of public opinion now is for both the ruling and opposition parties to focus on doing more work for the people and engage less in power struggle and in-fighting. Taiwanese also hope to see an end to the island’s notorious money politics.

　　The fierce fight between the ruling and opposition parties, the ruling party's habit of shirking its responsibilty, and the opposition parties' over-reaction to some issues, are the main grouses of the people. The problem is that few among Taiwan's far-too-many politicians have any aspirations and ideas for the island's future.

　　It is almost impossible for Taiwan to maintain economic growth this year at 3%. On the other hand, unemployment has risen above 5%. It is the common hope of the people that President Chen Shui-bian’s government come up with measures to create jobs, boost exports and attract foreign investment. And that it should do whatever that is within its means to do so, for instance, drop the “no haste, be patient” policy on China-bound investment, lift the ban on direct postal, trade and transport links with China, and open the door for mainland tourists to visit Taiwan. In short, to give the Taiwanese economy a shot in the arm.

　　All these, however, are unlikely to get the nod soon.

　　On cross-strait ties, the majority of Taiwanese favour maintaining the status quo. Those who are for either an immediate reunification or declaration of Taiwan as an independent state, are both in the minority. Most Taiwanese are not completely negative about the mainland - it is the one-party dominance of the Chinese Communist Party that gives them the jitters.

　　Taiwanese are absolutely against Beijing browbeating, humiliating and isolating the island. They feel Taiwan deserves greater international space and visibility.

　　Apart from a handful of politicians and some who advocate that the island break away from China, “getting rid of things China” nor “anti-China” sentiments are not the mainstream thinking of the masses in Taiwan. But identification with Taiwan and concern for the island is no doubt the general consensus.

　　While there seems to be a growing inclination towards acceptance of the Beijing-proposed “one country, two systems” formula, there is a need to get down to the nitty-gritty and the matter must be handled carefully.

　　Taiwanese hope to develop a society that is just, fair and safe. Issues such as law and order, environmental protection, medical care, education and housing are their key concerns.

　　The current confusion over the value system, unhealthy media competition, a small group of people who take to the streets over the slightest dispute, unfair distribution of resources for education and health care, and waste of public funds, are all undeniable facts. The promise of better welfare benefits has become the most effective means for politicians to hoodwink voters.

　　These are problems that cannot be resolved in the forseeable future.

　　Looking ahead, the prime hope is for a civil society to evolve gradually and for the society to develop and manifest its ability to adapt and heal itself. This may help prevent the present worsening situation from getting out of control.

　　To sum up, the mainstream of popular opinion in Taiwan has its generality as well as uniqueness. If politicians could use it to their advantage, they would be able to win elections. And if China could keep its finger on the pulse of changes in Taiwanese public opinion, a win-win solution may be found for the current impasse in cross-strait relations.

　　As an old Chinese saying goes: “He who wins the support of the people will flourish, he who loses the support of the people will perish”. Political leaders across the Taiwan Strait would do well to bear this in mind.

（The writer is a research fellow at Taiwan's National Chengchi University. Translated by Yap Gee Poh）

　　谈起民意，大家都知道民意会受到时间、空间，内、外环境的变化而有所不同。除此而外，民意还会受到政治人物的利用而有所转变。

台北街头的民众抗争。

　　过去，台湾内部曾对总统产生的方式究竟应该是委选、或直选有过一番争论，结果却在一夕之间因为李登辉的操弄而蟠然变色。所以後来有所谓（台湾）“民意如流水”的笑话出现，马英九等人还为此受伤不小。

　　其实，和世界其他各地比较起来，台湾的民意走向也未必就和别人有太大的不同。首先，就原则面而言，大家都需要一个安和乐利的政治、经济、社会环境，让大家能够生儿育女、养老送终，追求生存、发展、成功。

　　但这在现阶段的台湾似乎已经成了一个日渐遥远、甚至遥不可及的奢望。

　　其次，就具体的层面来看，在政治上，现阶段的台湾主流民意是，希望朝野政党各司其职，多做些实事，少搞些权谋，扫除黑金，重整政风。

　　台湾民众对于当前朝野恶斗，执政党遇事推诿责任，在野党在某些特定事项上的过度杯葛颇有怨言。太多的政客，太少的理想抱负正是台湾当前政坛现况的写照。

　　在经济上，今年台湾经济成长率要维持在百分之三几乎已不可能，但失业率则已超过百分之五。全台上下莫不希望陈水扁政府改善失业、提振外销，吸引外资，就操之在我部分尽快拿出具体办法，取消戒急用忍，开放两岸三通，同意大陆民众前往台湾观光，为台湾的经济注入新的活力。

　　但就目前看来，前述目标似乎仍不可能在短期内获得实现。

　　关於两岸关系方面，台湾民众的主流意识是维持现状，急统、急独均属绝对少数。多数民众对於中国大陆并无绝对恶感，但对中国共产党一党专政的体制确有相当程度的疑惧。

　　人民对於北京对台北的恶意打压、羞辱、孤立更是绝对的不以为然，咸认台湾应有更大的国际活动空间与能见度。

　　除了少数的政治人物及部分主张分离主义的人士之外，“去中国化”、“反华”并非台湾民众心中的主流意识。不过，大家认同台湾、关怀乡土倒是全民共识。

　　目前虽有较多的民意似乎倾向接受北京所提出的“一国两制”，但这其中仍有许多问题有待厘清，不能草率以对。

　　至於社会方面，台湾民众希望建立一个公平、合理、安全的社会，治安、环保、医疗、教育、住房问题都是大家关切的重点。

　　当前台湾社会价值观念的混淆，媒体的恶性竞争，少部分民众的动辄聚众抗争，教育、医疗资源的分配不公、过度浪费都是事实，社会福利的日趋浮滥更成了政客骗取选票的最佳利器。

　　在可预见的将来，这些问题同样并无好转可能。

　　展望未来，我们主要的期望是台湾公民社会的逐渐成型，社会自我调适、自愈能力的逐渐展现，这或许能使情况不致恶化到失控的地步。

　　总而言之，台湾民意的主流意识有其一般性，也有特殊性。如果台湾的政治人物能够加以掌握，那么其必能赢得选举；如果中国大陆能够充分体会，那麽两岸关系应能走出当前阴霾，找出一个双赢之道。

　　总之，中国有句古话，“得民者昌，失民者亡”，民者民心之谓也，两岸政治人物可不慎乎？

·作者是台湾国立政治大学国际关系学院研究员

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